Monday, June 21, 2010

week 10 rotating league name

Rules updates first:

By a margin of 5-2 with 5 abstaining, we're keeping Net SB. The 6 hitting categories next year will be the same as this year (R, HR, RBI, NSB, -K, OBP).

This week we'll vote on pitching changes.

Not sure what are alternatives are, so I'll put out a yes or no poll for switching K/9 back to K and instituting a 5GS minimum to qualify for pitching categories.

Voting on those will close next week, at which point we can vote on whether a weekly acquisition limit is necessary to prevent pitcher streaming, whether a rule that just says "no pitcher streaming" is adequate, or whether we're okay with streaming so no rules against it.

On to analysis - which I largely phoned in this week and still got them up late, stupid work to do at work:

Below is real simple weekly wins chart. A W means you had more W than L that week, a T means W=L that week. A more refined approach might look at 5-6-1 like a tie, but that's more work, so you get the simple.

Jay Hey and Pawn Sho are on the Just Win Baby track, with Blazing not far behind. Half the league has won and lost roughly half their games, with a few ties thrown in for good measure. It looks like Van Ho managed to build up a nice early lead, but has been slipping a bit as of late. Of course, there are 3 teams on the bottom that have not been doing so well.

Here's another table:

Left column are the number of possible Wins or ties in a given matchup. Middle column shows how many times a team ended a week with that many W, right column shows the same for ties. Important note is that each matchup is counted twice in both columns (a 9-3 end result counts toward both the 9 and the 3), and the ties are counted twice (so there's been 33 matchups that resulted in 1 tie for each team).

5 and 7 wins are the most common (which makes some sense since they complement each other). I'm surprised by the amount of 9's and 2's. Also, we haven't had more than 3 ties, which is not surprising since it is very difficult to tie a rate category.

week 11 Brew Plop Mid Season Review

I've paid precious little attention to baseball over the last week plus because of the world cup. I suppose the fantasy baseball gods have noticed this and decided to chastise me. I'm not going to give in to them for at least another week though, so that's probably good news for whoever it is I'm playing this week.

In the meantime, I'll mention that we're halfway through the regular season, which largely means that flukes are now trends and that those with large leads have to be very bad to get out of contention and vice versa for those teams not doing well.

Here's something to look at:

What you see here are two different looks at weekly wins.

The first set of columns gives weekly W, L, and T and looks strictly at whether the # of wins on the week was greater than, less than, or equal to the # of losses.

Burt and Edit are leading the pack here with 8 weekly wins a piece (Edit with only 1 weekly loss after stealing a couple of ties). The only other team with wins the majority of the first 11 weeks is the surprising Hopslayer.
Moonshine has an even weekly record at 4-4-3 and Censored is just 1 week away from a winning record.

The second set of columns also gives W, L, or T, but in this case the measure is greater than 7 W (big win), greater than 7 L (big loss), or between 5-7 wins inclusive.
This stat could also be called "Burt kills everyone". More often than not, Reynolds has come away with more than 8 W on the week. Of Edit's 8 weekly wins, only half have been of the large, convincing variety. Moonshine seems to have gone binary for his wins, as all 4 of his weekly wins were also big wins.
I believe I may be challenging Lebron's Unicorn's 2009 title of "most mediocre" with only 1 big win and 1 big loss, but 9 close matches (which have mostly been close losses, unfortunately).

The Dunbars get the unfortunate distinction of lay-down losers, as all 7 of their weekly losses have been of the big variety. The Buhls may have more weekly losses, overall, but it appears that many of those have been relatively close.

With the exception of Moonshine who has lost or tied every close week, and it appears that most of the close weeks have evened out. That is, if you split the number of close weeks for each team equally between W and L, you end up with very close to the overall W-L record.

I may or may not do more this week, since it is the halfway mark. If anyone has anything they [i]want[/i] to see for the mid-season review, do it and I'll post it up here (or tell me about it and I might do it myself).

week 10 recap brew plop

It's a good thing it's World Cup time, cause I feel like baseball is quitting on me.

I fully plan on ranting out and out and calling it a "video update" later. For now, here's some stuff (earlier than usual, because I'm awake).

First up, regular year-to-date Roto rankings (10 points for the best, 1 for worst, 120 possible)

Jon and I clearly have the best two offenses, while there is a 5-way battle for the "eh" of the worst offensive side (everyone under 30 points).
Pitching-wise, it's Buten and Bartha up front (but not quite in that order) and Max, Kevin and Matt rearing up the rear.

Overall, Jon and I are stupidly evenly matched and that's... the topic of the rant I keep promising in video form.

So because I have that awesome ranking, but still managed to lose this week, I decided to look at it a different way... NORMALIZED.

Quick caveats (I think the same ones as I had the last time I used normalized scores): All averages are averages of averages or something like that, so they are not properly weighted. Also, the standardized scores do help sort out a small difference between the 5th and 7th player in a category, but they probably overstate a dominated category (since you can only win a category point once in a week, no matter how far ahead you are).

If you want to see the full chart and each team's tendencies, click here:

Anyway, the interesting things, to me at least:
1) Jon's hitting is even better than regular roto shows, which is from being exceptional in 3 cats and good/decent in the others.
2) Jon's pitching appears to suck, because he's nailing down HA and BB, but giving up W and K and only slightly better than average in ERA and Saves.
3) Bobby's pitching is really, really good.
4) Bobby's pitching is unbelievably good because his ERA is so much better than anyone else's, which seems unsustainable.
5) Scott's lefties are below average in every hitting category.
6) Bartha's shiners are below average in every hitting category except -K's, but they are a much greater liability than the Lefties offense, which gets most of its bad from terrible R.
7) Bartha's pitching is very good.
8) Kevin's pitching has been the worst combination of bad counters and worse rates.
9) Matt is very average thanks to a offense that has woken up and a pitching staff that hasn't.
10) Mike (again) is an average team in that both his hitting and pitching are very close to average.
11) Mike and Matt are both very susceptible to luck, including who they are facing that week.
12) I don't think I've mentioned Geoff in this post yet, but the only thing I can come up with for him is that he's the top of the lowest tier, according to normalized roto scores.


Monday, June 07, 2010

Brew Plop week 9 recap

I'll walk you through The Journey of Week 9: The Analysis (worst movie title ever)

I started off looking at expected wins again, mostly because Jon likes them and he kind of killed the league this week.

Couple of notes: Max had a good week, but it would have been better had he not faced Mike would should have had an okay week. Kevin took a couple extra wins from Matt, mostly because Matt's fantasy team was drained because of a bike ride from Dayton to Cincinnati (congrats on the real life, Matt). Jon should have had an ordinary week and Geoff should have had a bad one, but luck rolled in and made it epically good/bad depending on your rooting interests.

Then I devised the theory that this week was an unusually bad week for hitting. Decided to see how this week matched up to the overall average (including week 9's numbers, which isn't technically the way to do this right, but it's free non-useful fantasy analysis, so deal). Also, to not go crazy, ERA and BA are both averages of averages, so they are not correctly weighted.

I looked at 3 variations of averages. Team's week 9 versus their own average, Team's week 9 versus league average, then team's own average versus league average.
To test my theory, I looked at hitting and pitching separately.

The table shows the number of categories (out of 12 categories for 10 teams, so 120 possibilities) where a team's number was better than the comparison (including accounting for the 4 negative categories).

So overall, this week was slightly better than an average week, but that was driven by pitching being better than hitting. Hitting itself was slightly down this week, though probably not much more than average.

In an effort to save some space, I will link the two team breakdowns I came up with to get the above summary.

First, here is each team's better than average matrix:

Second, here is each team's average and the overall averages for each category:

If you want to read this post with those two large tables visible, that's how I'll post it over at my fantasy blog/archive of these league updates.

Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Brew Plop week 8 recap

Can't remember that Mondays are Mondays if I have them off.

Here's the laziest entry I've done to date, it's just another look at the running best and worst weekly scores:

I'm glad that the Dunbars managed to have the best and worst Runs. I'm also glad that the Elbows managed 16 HR in week 7, but only 19 Runs in week 8.

I'm less glad for the 5 IP Hops vs Edit matchup that produced a 0.000 tie in ERA. With that matchup, we can officially start discussing fixes for next season. The goal will be to value SP and RP equally. Thinking we'll have to have a min IP and probably change Hits Allowed to Batting average against. Feel free to discuss below.