Med Mania

Generally, I don't care too much about performance enhancing drug stories and try not to say much about them (which is easy when I never write blog entries). However, with all the hoopla surrounding Manny's 50 game suspension, I think there's an angle that's been missed.

Manny indicated that he's been tested many times since 2003, the year, evidently, that steroids were invented. Other things Manny has done since 2003:

Won 2 World Series with the Red Sox.
Hit a crap-ton of doubles and singles (and several home runs).
Asked to be traded from Boston on roughly 9 separate occasions (at least one of which was during the World Series).
Turned down a $45 million contract before eventually "winning" by signing... a $45 million contract.
Turned a bunch of doubles into singles and singles into ground outs by walking down to first.

So here's my thought. Does anyone else think that Manny may have intentionally took a small about of a banned substance so he could sit out for 50 games and do whatever it is he does when he's not playing baseball?

I can't shake the thought. I think he took a weird drug, in a small amount. And then reminded us that he could have passed the drug test if he had wanted. I mean, what does Manny actually want? He wanted a huge payday from the Dodgers because it was more like Cleveland than Boston (still confused on that). He wants to play when it matters. He does not like playing every day. So the way to keep himself fresh was either to sit down and walk out grounders and complain on the bench about something.

Or... Take a pill and get a month and a half off.

Predictions Revisited

I'm planning something cool (read math related and not really cool for people who don't do math in their spare time) for this week regarding end of season results based on April records, but that's actual content and takes time. In the mean time, enjoy my terrible, terrible predictions from before the season.

AL East (Average Spots Off = 2)
Preseason Picks 5/4 Morning
Yankees Blue Jays
Rays Red Sox
Red Sox Yankees
Orioles Rays
Blue Jays Orioles

How bad are my predictions looking? Well, I thought that Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays would be battling it out. However, the Blue Jays are one of two teams that are in the opposite position of my prediction (last to first or first to last). Of the 6 divisions, my average spots off here were the second highest only to:

AL Central (Average Spots Off = 2.4)
Preseason Picks 5/4 Morning
Indians Royals
Twins Tigers
Tigers White Sox
Royals Twins
White Sox Indians

The Indians were my other complete mis-pick, but hey, at least I knew it was a homer call. What I really didn't expect was for the non-Indians in the central to all be within 2 games of each other.

AL West (Average Spots Off = 1)
Preseason Picks 5/4 Morning
Angels Mariners
Mariners Rangers
Rangers Angels
Athletics Athletics

The AL West was the best by my made up, completely meaningless metric of average spots off. I believe this is at least partially affect by there only being 4 spots, so less possible deviation. Basically, the Angels are underperforming to my expectations, but the rest of the order remains the same.

NL East (Average Spots Off = 1.2)
Preseason Picks 5/4 Morning
Mets Marlins
Phillies Phillies
Braves Braves
Marlins Mets
Nationals Nationals

Despite my made up metric (mmmmmmmm), the NL East looks the best for me, as 3 of 5 are in the right position with the Mets and Marlins just flipping spots. I'll take it.

NL Central (Average Spots Off = 1.7)
Preseason Picks 5/4 Morning
Cubs Cardinals
Brewers Reds
Reds Cubs
Cardinals Brewers
Astros Pirates
Pirates Astros

Opposite issue of the AL West where the number is probably inflated because of the presence of 6 teams instead of the normal 5. The only real surprise here are the Cardinals strutting (though I suppose the Cubs underperforming is the second part of that).

NL West (Average Spots Off = 1.2)
Preseason Picks 5/4 Morning
Diamondbacks Dodgers
Dodgers Giants
Giants Diamondbacks
Rockies Padres
Padres Rockies

No one cares about the NL West.

In summation: Overall, I was an average of 1.6 spots off, which sounds small except being off by 1.6 of 5 means I was closer to being 2 spots off than correctly guessing or being 1 spot off.

# of spots off # of teams
0 4
1 12
2 8
3 4
4 2

If I randomly selected each teams placement, while ignoring every other teams placement, I would have a 20% chance of guessing the placement correctly. To this point, I have correctly predicted 4 of 30 teams, or .13%. Not good. However, if you include the teams that are 1 spot off (and I do because it makes me feel better) then I predicted 16 of 30, 53%. Not bad.


Assuming there could be ties (which is possible, sort of), then I could randomly get the place of every team in a division 0.032% of the time. The math here doesn't really work, but I'll leave it to someone else to point out why.

The hits keep on coming...

but the blog posts don't.

Sorry for the one of you who check this still. A little busy with life for the last couple of weeks.

Things that have happened in baseball since the last post:

Um... Well I'm not sure, that's why I haven't really posted. I seem to remember the Indians scoring 22 runs against the Yankees in a game, but only splitting the series 2-2.

The last time I wrote, it looked like the Sox weren't going anywhere, but now they've run off 11 wins in row (hopefully not 12 or I owe my brother a sixer of New England local beer the next time I go back).

Interesting things I've looked at in the last few minutes:

The Pirates are over .500 and have 5 shutouts on the year. The first time someone mentioned this to me I assumed they were shutout 5 times, which seemed low for the Pirates. After a quick check though, they have indeed won 5 games where their opponents have scored zero runs.

Moments ago, the Marlins were everyone's hot team to rent another championship because they were 11-1. Now they are 11-8 and people can't run fast enough.

The Giants are averaging 3.6 runs a game, which is lowest in the majors. The Blue Jays are at just about 6 a game.

I've heard at least 12 different pronunciations of Asdrubal.

More to come at the end of the month, since that's my arbitrary 1/6 season marker.

Great Plays

Just saw Cubs Outfielder Reed Johnson rob Prince Fielder of a Home Run and was yelling in excitement about a game with relatively little impact on me (though I wouldn't have been able to tie in Wins in one of the 3 fantasy leagues I'm in). Very classy of Prince Fielder to tip his cap to the great play instead of doing something else or nothing at all.

It got me to thinking about the most exciting and somewhat rare plays in baseball.

I'm not going to rank them right now, but here are some of the cooler things I've seen and would like to one day witness in person.

First, the Reds hit into a triple play today. I'm always interested in them and always calling for them at inappropriate times (2 outs already, no one on base, etc.). I would settle for seeing any variety of triple play in person, but would love to see someone turn an unassisted triple play, like so.

I've seen several grand slams in my lifetime, so they don't seem all that rare to me. However, I will make note that the last ballgame I went to with my grandfather (Reds at Devil Rays in interleague play) marked the first slam I saw in person as well as the first time for my grandfather, despite his 60+ years of additional viewing experience.

I always like seeing plays that involve extreme amounts of speed, especially legged out triples with no errors and any variety of inside the park homer.

Someday it would be great to witness a real sloppy no-hitter (errors and walks all over the place, but still technically a pitching gem). Certainly, seeing anyone pitch a perfect game would be outstanding, but I doubt I make it to one in my lifetime (or after my lifetime for that matter, in fact after my lifetime I may have a slightly lower chance of seeing a perfect game).

Anyone else witnessed something weird or really want to see something on the diamond before they go?

In the things I never thought I'd see category, I saw Oliver Perez and Jamie Moyer throw a pitchers duel last summer at Shea. Not sure it fits the things I'd want to see, but certainly makes the list of things I never thought I would see.

More Predictions (probably last of the new season)

Time for some final predictions.

First, I'm thinking Angels over Diamondbacks in the World Series.  A West coast finale is Bud Seligs nightmare, so I think its a go.

MVP

AL  Evan Longoria

There's so much hype about him as an uberplayer, so I think he makes the transition from touted prospect to top end producer.  His name and story, combined with another playoff appearance (or at least a run) are enough to put him over the edge.

Honorable mentions: I don't think any one Yankee gets enough support to win it this year, but based on the writer love shoved towards Texeiria in the pre-season, he'll get some votes if he has a decent season.  Josh Hamilton has a shot if the Rangers win some games.  Dark Horse candidates are the Orioles outfielders, at least Adam Jones or Markakis.

NL  

Favorites are the fantasy favorites Han-Ram or Pujols, but I don't think either of their team wins enough games for them to get a fair shot at the trophy.  I think it comes down to either Manny or David Wright, with the writers liking Wright's style more than Manny.

Honorable mentions: I wouldn't be surprised if K-Rod gets some attention if he keeps the Mets in the division lead down the stretch.  I'm sure some Phillies will get some votes here too.  Dark horse candidate is Adam Dunn if the Nationals win anything and he doesn't get traded to the AL.

Cy Young

AL 

Not CC, and not Cliff Lee.  I'm going out on a limb to say that Felix Hernandez is healthly all season and leads the league in K's and is top 10 in ERA.  Only thing haunting his canidacy is a lack of wins, but I think around 18 is enough.  Other strong canidate is Halladay, who is the fall back when all other pitchers aren't outstanding.

NL

Lots of options here really.  No reason to think that Lincecum, Brandon Webb, or Santana can't repeat here, but I'm more interested to see whether Carpenter can come back into it.  If it's not Carpenter, I'm thinking that Dan Haren will finally put everything and lock this down.

Rookie of the Year and more madness to follow.