Tuesday, June 01, 2010

Brew Plop week 8 recap

Can't remember that Mondays are Mondays if I have them off.

Here's the laziest entry I've done to date, it's just another look at the running best and worst weekly scores:

I'm glad that the Dunbars managed to have the best and worst Runs. I'm also glad that the Elbows managed 16 HR in week 7, but only 19 Runs in week 8.

I'm less glad for the 5 IP Hops vs Edit matchup that produced a 0.000 tie in ERA. With that matchup, we can officially start discussing fixes for next season. The goal will be to value SP and RP equally. Thinking we'll have to have a min IP and probably change Hits Allowed to Batting average against. Feel free to discuss below.

Rotating league name week 8 recap

I was busy Memorial day weekend and though the public has spoken, Shane hasn't come up with anything I can put up here.

Here's your lazy Tuesday morning update of the best and worst of us:

Since I last updated this after week 5, 15 of 24 possible achievements have been met or exceeded. Notably, every hitting category best has been claimed in the last two weeks. Perhaps my personal favorites are Jay Hey setting the worst BAA record in week 7, then rebounding to set the best in week 8 and A-Fraud setting the worst for ERA while his hitters set the best OBP. I can only assume that his hitters were also facing his pitchers (and refuse to do anything to back up that claim like look at the week's box score).

On an entirely different note, A-Rod gets a lot of flack on a regular basis (often rightly so), however this weekend he showed genuine class after lining a double off Indians P David Huff's head. There are many more important events than occasionally showing class, but I felt compelled to remark on this particular incident.

Rotating League Name Week 7 recap

Since Shane wasn't the big winner this week, I decided to not keep the running tally of weekly bests and worsts. Ever. For this week. And last week.

What you see here is how a team can expect to finish a week given their past performance in each category. What I did was figure out how many weeks (out of 7) a team won, lost, or tied a particular category, then figured out your winning percentage for that category alone (using the same methods as ESPN, where T= .5W +.5L). What you see below is how each team did in each category. If a team won 60% or more of the time, they can expect to win that category each week. Less than 40% and they can expect to lose. Anywhere in between and it's a toss up from week to week.

I used this green color because it's very ugly.

Of note is that there are 4 categories that have been won 100% of the time. Hunt's Wins and Bartha's BB, SV, and K/9. Given this, it is a surprise that Bartha is not doing even better. Also, there's only 1 team that hasn't won a category and that's Corley's RBI, or rather, his lack there of. There's a whole lot of ugly for some people and it's never good when you have several "assumed loss" categories but few "assumed win" to go with it. The take away from this is that you can probably predict at the beginning of a week which categories a team will take and which are toss ups for that particular week.

Speaking of predictions, last week I used some method I don't remember (I think using YTD stats) to predict the outcome of each matchup. Here's how that went:

Well the prediction machine (notice how they are no longer my predictions, but the machine's) had a decent go of it. Only 1 upset (based on overall standings) was predicted. That matchup ended in a tie. Of the other 5 where the computer chalked, 3 were wins and 2 were upsets. As one of the upsets had 3 ties (and actually had the correct number of wins for Streeter's team), and the other upset was my team winning instead of losing, I'm fairly happy with the results. As expected, the results were only barely better than a coin flip.

Let me know if there's some kind of breakdown you want to do and I'll be happy to post it. Barring that, feel free to send along ideas for me to do.