Thursday, April 02, 2009

AL East

I was going to save this for last, but after seeing those other predictions, I suppose it is time.

Order first

Red Sox
Blue Jays

Yankees: This is not so much a prediction based on the roster as it currently stands. I believe there will be significant changes, especially as the DL, I mean outfield, sorts itself out. There are lots of pitchers there that are above average. Not only that, there are lots of other pitchers whose contracts are up in a year or two that will almost inevitably be traded mid-season to the Yankees. I can't imagine that Cashman will let it work out that the only seasons over a 10-15 year period where the Yankees don't make the playoffs are the last season in the old stadium and the first season in the new.

Rays: They didn't change their lineup or rotation all that much, but they now know how to handle themselves. With a young lineup, aging a year should only help, not to mention a full season out of Longoria and a resurging Carl Crawford. Big question is whether David Price can come out the minors and flame-throw.

Red Sox: Getting older when you're already kind of old does not make you better. The starting rotation could be great, or it could be 800 years old and realize it. Wakefield is done sometime soon if not already. You can't expect a full season out of either Penny or Smoltz, in fact they will be lucky to have a combined 35 starts between the two. Ped, Youk, and Ellsbury are great players for years to come. I don't believe in Drew and really never have, I think Bay has a decent year but is on the decline and I don't see how Lowell continues to defy age and injury.

Orioles: Don't ask me why, because I don't have a good answer. There's too much hitting there to not win some games and their pitching might be adequate. Everyone says that Wieters will come into the league and take off, and I'm inclined to believe that he will be good on offense and calling the game.

Blue Jays: They've been almost there for several seasons now, but they have made the mistake of trying to get better by getting older (naturally and through free agency). They have to break down sometime and I think it is this year despite Halladay continuing to be the best pitcher that only gets talked about when people want to talk about a pitcher who isn't talked about enough.

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