Monday, April 26, 2010

Brew Plop through 2

Well, we mostly survived the week where half the MLBPA hit 4 HRs a piece.

The goal of today is to answer two questions: First, how would I have done against other teams.

Bam, drop an apple on his

[link]http://lh4.ggpht.com/_yL5evi7KW4k/S8xPtilJxkI/AAAAAAAAE0k/GWxZpLmLCn0/week2expectedwins.JPG[/link]

First, the methodology - I sorted through the weekly score and ranked each team based on how many teams they would beat (not tie) that week with that score (i.e., if you're tops, you get a 9, if you're tied with the second best score, you get a 7, if you're the lowest you get a zero). Added those scores up for all 12 categories then divided by 9. In essence, created a probability chart for each category.

There's quite a bit of rounding error, but I vagued that away (that is ignored it) by not accounting for ties at all.

It appears that most teams did about as well as they could expect. The former Tots and I both got a little hosed because we had two relatively strong teams going against each other. The Unicorns picked up a little something extra because their strengths and weaknesses largely match the Lefties, who got out muscled in a few categories.

There's more there that is interesting, but I won't force too many explanations on it.

The second question of the week is who have been the best and worst performers thus far. I'll try to update this list semi-regularly throughout the season. Burt appears all over this list, evidently due to his all or nothing strategy (and extreme lifestyle).




[link]http://lh6.ggpht.com/_yL5evi7KW4k/S8xPuI-B4jI/AAAAAAAAE0o/awGGoOPRnn4/s720/bestthrough2weeks.JPG[/link]

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