Monday, May 17, 2010

rotating league name week 5 recap

Far too involved league analysis:

Couldn't decide what I wanted to do for this week's update, so I just did way too much for way too little.

The table below shows expected win values next to actual win totals and the difference between the two.

Here's how we got there. I found the average values and standard deviations for each category. I then classified each weekly category result and assigned that result a point value (high outlier +2, above average +1, below average 0, low outlier -2). I figured you had a reasonable expectation to win a category by being above average in it, with bonuses/punishment for extreme showings. I'm pretty sure I treated negative categories correctly. If you're at all interested, I used 1.75sd for the outlier break, because there were very few above the standard 1.96. I then added up all those categories and weeks and got an expected points total (451), which I then scaled to the number of possible wins (360 to this point). The actual total of wins is lower than 360 due to ties.

Anyway, here's the result:

A negative difference means based on your teams performance, your team would have fared better against an average team than against the teams it actually faced. The biggest caveats are that this is actually less precise than the other way I did expected wins, as this assumes an on/off for winning or not, while the other rates your chance to win a category given others' performance. (old way explained here). This way was slightly easier to look at the season as a whole though, instead of just one week. It also helps show how much luck and opponent can affect the standings.

And since Shane is still kicking names and taking ass, here's the ongoing best (with a new best and worst from week 5):

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