Monday, June 07, 2010

Brew Plop week 9 recap

I'll walk you through The Journey of Week 9: The Analysis (worst movie title ever)

I started off looking at expected wins again, mostly because Jon likes them and he kind of killed the league this week.

Couple of notes: Max had a good week, but it would have been better had he not faced Mike would should have had an okay week. Kevin took a couple extra wins from Matt, mostly because Matt's fantasy team was drained because of a bike ride from Dayton to Cincinnati (congrats on the real life, Matt). Jon should have had an ordinary week and Geoff should have had a bad one, but luck rolled in and made it epically good/bad depending on your rooting interests.

Then I devised the theory that this week was an unusually bad week for hitting. Decided to see how this week matched up to the overall average (including week 9's numbers, which isn't technically the way to do this right, but it's free non-useful fantasy analysis, so deal). Also, to not go crazy, ERA and BA are both averages of averages, so they are not correctly weighted.

I looked at 3 variations of averages. Team's week 9 versus their own average, Team's week 9 versus league average, then team's own average versus league average.
To test my theory, I looked at hitting and pitching separately.

The table shows the number of categories (out of 12 categories for 10 teams, so 120 possibilities) where a team's number was better than the comparison (including accounting for the 4 negative categories).

So overall, this week was slightly better than an average week, but that was driven by pitching being better than hitting. Hitting itself was slightly down this week, though probably not much more than average.

In an effort to save some space, I will link the two team breakdowns I came up with to get the above summary.

First, here is each team's better than average matrix:

Second, here is each team's average and the overall averages for each category:

If you want to read this post with those two large tables visible, that's how I'll post it over at my fantasy blog/archive of these league updates.

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