Brew Plop

Congrats on making it through 1 week.
Interestingly enough, the matchups are the same this year as last year, but with rather different results
Eric vs Kevin: This time 5-5-2, last year 8-2-0
Scott vs Bobby: 5-6-1, 3-6-1
Mike vs Max (Jared): 6-4-2, 3-6-1
Steve (Dave) vs Matt: 8-4-0, 6-3-1
Jon vs Geoff: 9-3-0, 4-5-1

By my quick estimation, the only thing that was about the same was Matt's loss.

Anyway, here's some other stuff.



Because I didn't feel like doing regular roto scores, I instead came up with the summary statistics (average, median, mode, st dev) for each category through 1 week. I used that to normalize each category, then added up the results (or subtracted when appropriate). What you (hopefully) see above is the rankings based on the summed normalized scores. This is a long way of getting at how your team is doing overall, instead of looking at just how your team did versus the team you were placed against. Enjoy







For more on standardized scores, including a category by category table: [link]http://dionysum.blogspot.com/2010/04/week-1-results-brew-plop.html[/link]

Week 1 results (Brew Plop)

Above are the normalized scores for each team and category. The number represents how far above or below average a team is in a specific category. For negative categories (Hitter's K, HA, BB, ERA), where lower is better, a team is better off being below average. The total score is derived by adding the positive categories and subtracting the negative categories.
The red highlights show the two outliers of the sample (which is only a sample of 10, so none of this is particularly significant). The Dunbars were unable to score runs and about the only thing the Bulls did well was not give up runs.

Rotating League Name Draft Analysis

Here's a load of draft analysis since we don't have any weekly results to speak of just yet.

The leftmost columns show the total and average ESPN value for each roster as of whenever it was I copied it (same as the last table). Some wide variation here, from Obama loves my team almost getting even money to the Ninjas overspending quite a bit. The caveat here is that ESPN values are for standard scoring leagues, so it is entirely possible to have spent the "right" amount on a player who isn't particularly beneficial with our scoring or "overpaid" for someone who fits our criteria quite well.

Overall, we as a league got $214 of value from our $260, meaning we spent 21% more per pick that ESPN recommended. This is not entirely surprising as we spent our money on 21 players instead of the 25 in ESPN standard leagues (19% difference there).

The second set of columns show how many players on each roster were overspent for, underspent for, then over- or underspent by more than $4. If they don't add up to 21, that's because a team had one or more players at the exact ESPN value.

If I get the time, I'll post each teams biggest reach and best deal later this week.

Update: I made time


Most of the overspent guys are who you would expect (except for me overspending on Mike Gonzalez, how dumb am I?). The underspent appear to mostly be veterans who the ESPN list liked, but that no one saw much upside on for a keeper league.

Note: If anyone else does this kind of obsessive tinkering with the league numbers, let me know and I'll be sure to throw it up here.

Drafting Analysis

The above picture shows the more useful set of draft information, as has 3 measures of the expected value of each teams roster (six if you count the sums separately from the averages, even though they tell you the same thing) (12 if you count the sums, averages, actual numbers and rankings all as separate, but that might be dumb).

The 2009 player rater shows what ESPN says a player did last year. Obviously players that didn't play last year got zero's, so all the prospects really bring down the average. Even worse, several players who came in, did poorly, then went to the DL all year ended up with negative numbers. The former blithe tots maxed this out, while moon shine has the lowest values (probably because of Liriano's way negative).

Second column shows the ESPN dollar value. Last year's champ leads the dollar values and again Moonshine is at the bottom (a running theme for this table). I doubted whether to even put positional rankings in, since the rankings for pitchers completely skew the other numbers. I figured the rest of the table was not particularly useful, so might as well add quantity.




Part 2 is mostly draft analysis. The big issue with all of this is the keepers. Didn't really matter which 4 keepers you had in what order, they were randomly assigned. It might even out a bit since it happened to everyone, but without putting too much thought into it, it seems like it flaws the rest. I also had to assign values to non-drafted players (since it was rosters as of this week, after people made changes already). I gave all non-drafted players a value of 201 (ESPN gives undrafted players 260 or 261 since their standard leagues pick that many players).

Anyway, here's the rest of the flawed rest. The first two columns show the number of players that were taken for each roster either before or after their average draft position (ADP). The 2nd two columns show how many players on each roster were taken more than 10 spots before or after their ADP. The Bulls again had the least reached for players (thanks auto-draft bot) and the most late round picks (again, thanks draft bot). Those unicorns had 10 players (of a roster of 20), that were reaches (thanks homer calls!). The limber lefties evidently couldn't wait for players, as they had only 3 later bloomers.

Almost all of this means nothing, but here it is for you anyway.

Post Draft Roto Rankings

I'm hoping to get something or things up about post-draft rosters and such before the season starts. It may well happen.
update: It did.
This is less than analysis but it took some doing.
[image][/image][link]https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqV-yDUIEW0S_1yc5okVhKs9UomEGt-JWCGddh16wxSZBhp_RbcWIPAATvAzy0tjGCBybIWPUYvv3Al3JWEr6hMXyBgvfn7ePwL5J1oNky6L7SjShPMP0Jh37N28Uzqg5k9L_X//[/link]

I took the preseason ESPN 2010 predictions and took the average per player on your roster. Note this is highly inaccurate because it assumes that the bench spots play all the time, which cannot happen. Also, all the rate categories are averages of averages, so it doesn't take into account expected AB or innings pitched.

It should give you a decent idea of what categories you have the players to expect to win versus which opponents.